If Trump Loses Florida Can He Still Win
WEST PALM Embankment, Fla. – Former Vice President Joe Biden might take won the presidency after days of counting, just Ballot Day was a flop for Democrats in Florida.
Much has been made of how the Democrats hemorrhaged back up from Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade County. But that solitary does non explain why Biden lost the country by about 375,000 votes, a substantial gap in a state known for cardboard margins.
An assay of post-election data shows that several factors played into the Democrats' bad solar day.
Biden did underperform in heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade County subsequently Republicans were successful in casting the former vice president every bit a socialist threat in communities where people take up-close and personal memories of socialism and communism. Turnout in areas that went for President Donald Trump surpassed turnout in areas that went for Biden. The urban-rural divide colorfully illustrated in the red and blue maps deployed by television networks played out on the basis in Florida.
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And then there is the enthusiasm factor. Nothing, not his impeachment, not the 230,000-plus coronavirus deaths, not the cratered national economy and non his litany of falsehoods moved Trump's supporters away from him. They waved placards on overpasses, flew flags from the back of their trucks and wore T-shirts with the president'southward signature phrase, "Brand America Groovy Again."
"I've never seen annihilation like it," said Mike Coleman, vice chairman of the Democratic Party of Palm Beach Canton.
Trump cruised to a margin of victory that was more than twice the combined margin from the past three gubernatorial elections. Trump trounce Biden iii times more decisively in Florida than he beat Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Democrats lost congressional and other down-ballot races, too.
Democrats were successful in boosting turnout overall from 2016, simply those bigger numbers were trumped by the GOP.
"Nosotros simply didn't go on up," Coleman said.
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205,000-vote driblet in Miami-Dade
There will be much paw-wringing over what happened in Miami-Dade.
The strategy for any Democrat trying to win statewide in Florida is to run up big margins in South Florida and limit the margins in more conservative parts of the state.
Clinton most pulled information technology off, chirapsia Trump in Miami-Dade by 290,000 votes in 2016, when she lost the country past just over a percentage signal.
Biden, though, couldn't lucifer Clinton'due south success in that location. Initial returns show he won Miami-Dade by nigh 85,000 votes, nowhere virtually plenty to start Trump's margins elsewhere.
As of Sunday, results showed Biden getting 53% of votes in Miami-Dade. Clinton got 63% in 2016.
Florida election:Results by county
Just equally they did with Clinton and just as they did when former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum ran for governor, Republicans cast Biden as a Trojan horse for socialism. Information technology was a potent pitch, especially amid Cuban Americans in Miami, many of whom are personally familiar with the cost Fidel Castro-style socialism took on Cuba.
"It's piece of cake for Trump to option that scab," Coleman said. "I'm not certain how long that's going to last."
Democrats tried to fight back, hoping Biden'due south long record in the U.S. Senate would dispel any socialist fears and even deploying former President Barack Obama to make the former vice president'southward case.
Volition whatever Democrat campaigning in South Florida ever be tarred as a socialist in waiting?
"I recollect information technology can be countered," Coleman said. "I don't think it'southward been countered well."
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Trump's Cuba crackdown
Obama tried to ease the chill between Cuba and the U.s.a., restoring diplomatic relations and liberalizing trade. But in September, with the ballot weeks away, Trump croaky down on Cuba, barring American travelers from staying in government-run hotels in the island nation or bringing home rum or cigars.
Trump's move will brand it nearly impossible for many Americans to visit Cuba considering the regime controls nearly of the hotels there.
"I canceled the Obama-Biden sellout to the Castro regime," Trump said.
A return to strict sanctions against Cuba will go along its government isolated, but it will likewise brand information technology harder for Cuban Americans to visit relatives and send them money.
Coleman said the style to counter the socialist label among Cuban Americans is to "remind them of what they've lost."
Break up Florida Dems?
Jody Young, a political strategist who has worked for Democratic candidates, said Democrats should have been better prepared to offer counterarguments.
"Paying taxes to have a police force department is socialism," he said. "Paying taxes to accept health care is socialism. It'due south not your grandfather's socialism. I mean, await at Social Security. Nosotros failed in that messaging."
Tuesday'south struggles accept opened fissures in the party.
Young said Democrats demand a change in party leadership in Tallahassee. On his Facebook page, he shared an acrimonious text message exchange with state Rep. Matt Willhite, a Democrat who represents parts of Wellington, Royal Palm Beach and Loxahatchee Groves.
Willhite disagreed with the assessment that the political party needs new leadership.
The Young-Willhite dispute was a window into a broad set of concerns many in the party take about its management.
Young said part of the problem is consequent messaging.
"You tin can't run a political party on hope yearlong," he said. "You can't go into the minority customs merely at election time."
In add-on to winning Miami-Dade by a 205,000 fewer votes than Clinton, Biden'due south margin of victory in Palm Beach County was smaller past about four,300 votes, with just a 98,000-vote margin in his favor. Trump exceeded local party expectations by taking 43.2% of the county vote.
Biden cruel brusk in Broward Canton of Clinton'southward 2022 performance every bit well, winning by a margin of seven,600 fewer votes.
All told, though, the South Florida "wins" weren't plenty to give Biden a shot at beating Trump, who swamped him past 841,000 votes in areas outside of South Florida, about xl,000 more votes than in 2016.
Trump'due south victory margin grew because Southward Florida didn't deliver for Democrats as it has in the past. Clinton rode a 685,000-vote wave in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. With slippage in all three counties, Biden's winning margin barely topped 467,000.
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Urban-rural divide
Florida'due south counties are experiencing the aforementioned trend seen across the state this century, with dense urban counties becoming increasingly Democratic, rural counties voting more Republican and suburban areas somewhere in between.
That tendency is illustrated in Duval County, abode to Jacksonville.
The last time voters there selected a Democrat for president was 1976, when Southerner Jimmy Carter ran. But in 2018, for the commencement time in 42 years, Duval voters backed Gillum and Beak Nelson in statewide races. And Biden won the majority of votes there this time around.
In Seminole County, the northern neighbor to populous Orange County, voters have trended toward Democrats, who won the canton in 2022 statewide races for the beginning fourth dimension since 1948. Biden won a majority at that place, too.
Meanwhile, in one case reliably blue St. Lucie County continues to trend red. Trump won a bulk of votes there.
In 2016, he won a plurality, 49.9%. Earlier then, Democrats won the majority there going back to 1996.
Typically, the candidate who wins Pinellas County, home to St. petersburg, wins the state. But Biden took the county past a slim 1,200 votes, the offset time since Al Gore won Pinellas in 2000 that the winner of the canton and the state were different.
In all, Trump won 55 of Florida's 67 counties, with Biden winning the more populous urban counties and Trump winning the more rural. Collier Canton, which Trump carried past 50,000 votes, had the highest turnout at 90%. Overall turnout reached 77%.
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Florida no longer a bellwether?
Biden and Trump came into the race understanding the importance of winning Florida and its 29 Balloter College votes.
If Biden'south win withstands likely courtroom challenges from the Trump campaign, it will exist the first presidential race since 1992 when Florida's voters did not select the Electoral College winner.
Of course, the 1992 race included a wealthy third-party contender, Ross Perot.
Before 1992, the last time the bulk of Florida voters was out of pace with the national electorate was 1960, when they selected Republican Richard Nixon over Democrat John F. Kennedy.
Coleman said the areas in Florida where Democrats need to be strong are shifting. The Interstate 4 corridor, home to an increasing number of Hispanic voters who are not Cuban Americans, is emerging every bit an opportunity for the political party.
"When the I-4 corridor becomes the power heart for Hispanic voting, Miami-Dade'due south going to sideslip down a notch," he said.
Coleman estimates that, by the end of the decade, Hispanics in the I-4 corridor volition carry as much if not more clout than GOP-leaning Cuban Americans practise in Miami-Dade.
"The right personality could advance that much more speedily," he said.
For the past iv years, it has been the GOP with the right political personality.
Trump has been impervious to scandal and drew thousands to rallies even equally the coronavirus set grim records for sickness and death. The president inspired fear and acquiescence among other elected Republicans who knew not to cross him. And Trump consistently pounded Democrats rhetorically.
That constant stream of invective made information technology tougher for Democrats to appeal to moderates and voters who accept no political amalgamation, Coleman said.
"He has used every opportunity to denigrate and demonize Democrats," Coleman said. "He's had a bully pulpit that allowed him to preach incessantly in a way that demonized Democrats."
More than anything else, Coleman said, Biden lost Florida for one reason: Donald Trump.
"He congenital up a cult of personality, and we simply experienced it," he said.
Follow reporters Wayne Washington and Chris Persaud on Twitter: @waynewashpbpost, @ChrisMPersau
Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/08/how-donald-trump-won-florida-rural-success-beat-joe-biden/6214043002/
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